Recompete Prediction · high confidence
ENGINEERING SERVICES
Department of Defense · Department of the Navy · expires 2026-09-23 (94 days) · value $23.5M
View on USAspending.gov → · PIID N6523625F3030
Predicted winner: CACI, INC. - FEDERAL
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| CACI, INC. - FEDERAL incumbent | 50% | 2 recent awards | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 50%) |
| NORTHROP GRUMMAN SYSTEMS CORPORATION | 7% | 7 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (7 awards, $12253.0M in trailing window) |
| LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION | 7% | 7 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (7 awards, $3763.9M in trailing window) |
| RAYTHEON COMPANY | 6% | 6 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (6 awards, $8314.2M in trailing window) |
| ELECTRIC BOAT CORPORATION | 5% | 5 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (5 awards, $37547.7M in trailing window) |
| HII MISSION TECHNOLOGIES CORP | 5% | 5 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (5 awards, $3525.8M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 50% for this award:
- original was full & open competition (-5pp: contested lane)
- 8 offers on original (-7pp: crowded lane)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 120 recent awards across 55 firms in NAICS 541330.
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.