Recompete Prediction · high confidence
ENGINEERING SERVICES
Department of Defense · Department of the Navy · expires 2026-09-25 (95 days) · value $9.2M
Predicted winner: MARINE SYSTEMS CORPORATION
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARINE SYSTEMS CORPORATION incumbent | 62% | — | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 62%) |
| RAYTHEON COMPANY | 7% | 13 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (13 awards, $10244.1M in trailing window) |
| LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION | 6% | 10 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (10 awards, $4543.7M in trailing window) |
| NORTHROP GRUMMAN SYSTEMS CORPORATION | 5% | 8 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (8 awards, $12529.0M in trailing window) |
| ELECTRIC BOAT CORPORATION | 3% | 5 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (5 awards, $37547.7M in trailing window) |
| L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. | 3% | 5 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (5 awards, $3582.5M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 62% for this award:
- no adjustment signals available (using base rate)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 150 recent awards across 63 firms in NAICS [object Object].
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.