Recompete Prediction · high confidence
SATELLITE TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Department of Defense · Department of the Air Force · expires 2027-03-18 (269 days) · value $21.1M
Predicted winner: SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP.
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP. incumbent | 62% | 10 recent awards | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 62%) |
| INMARSAT GOVERNMENT, INC. | 10% | 26 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (26 awards, $232.1M in trailing window) |
| SES SPACE & DEFENSE, INC. | 7% | 17 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (17 awards, $220.9M in trailing window) |
| GLOBAL ENTERPRISE SOLUTIONS, INC. | 5% | 11 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (11 awards, $387.0M in trailing window) |
| VIASAT INC | 3% | 7 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (7 awards, $585.2M in trailing window) |
| IRIDIUM SATELLITE LLC | 3% | 7 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (7 awards, $132.3M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 62% for this award:
- no adjustment signals available (using base rate)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 150 recent awards across 47 firms in NAICS [object Object].
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.