Recompete Prediction · high confidence
FACILITIES SUPPORT SERVICES
National Aeronautics and Space Administration · National Aeronautics and Space Administration · expires 2026-09-30 (100 days) · value $25.6M
Predicted winner: NOVA SPACE SOLUTIONS, LLC
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOVA SPACE SOLUTIONS, LLC incumbent | 62% | 1 recent awards | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 62%) |
| KBR SERVICES, LLC | 10% | 21 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (21 awards, $38858.0M in trailing window) |
| VECTRUS SYSTEMS LLC | 6% | 12 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (12 awards, $12256.6M in trailing window) |
| AMENTUM SERVICES, INC. | 5% | 10 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (10 awards, $12018.2M in trailing window) |
| PAE GOVERNMENT SERVICES, INC. | 4% | 8 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (8 awards, $3072.6M in trailing window) |
| FLUOR INTERCONTINENTAL, INC | 3% | 6 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (6 awards, $13769.6M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 62% for this award:
- no adjustment signals available (using base rate)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 150 recent awards across 85 firms in NAICS [object Object].
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.