Recompete Prediction · high confidence
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHYSICAL, ENGINEERING, AND LIFE SCIENCES (EXCEPT NANOTECHNOLOGY AND BIOTECHNOLOGY)
Department of Health and Human Services · Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services · expires 2026-09-25 (95 days) · value $12.8M
Predicted winner: THE MITRE CORPORATION
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| THE MITRE CORPORATION incumbent | 62% | 8 recent awards | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 62%) |
| CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY | 9% | 19 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (19 awards, $12790.8M in trailing window) |
| LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION | 6% | 12 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (12 awards, $13375.4M in trailing window) |
| NORTHROP GRUMMAN SYSTEMS CORPORATION | 5% | 9 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (9 awards, $8040.0M in trailing window) |
| LEIDOS BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH INC | 4% | 7 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (7 awards, $3504.2M in trailing window) |
| LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP | 3% | 6 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (6 awards, $13976.3M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 62% for this award:
- no adjustment signals available (using base rate)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 150 recent awards across 66 firms in NAICS [object Object].
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.