Recompete Prediction · high confidence
ADMINISTRATIVE MANAGEMENT AND GENERAL MANAGEMENT CONSULTING SERVICES
Department of Homeland Security · Transportation Security Administration · expires 2026-09-29 (100 days) · value $18.6M
Predicted winner: GUIDEHOUSE INC.
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| GUIDEHOUSE INC. incumbent | 62% | 2 recent awards | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 62%) |
| DELOITTE CONSULTING LLP | 6% | 8 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (8 awards, $850.2M in trailing window) |
| BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON INC | 6% | 7 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (7 awards, $749.2M in trailing window) |
| CHEMONICS INTERNATIONAL, INC. | 5% | 6 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (6 awards, $10826.0M in trailing window) |
| SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION | 4% | 4 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (4 awards, $910.3M in trailing window) |
| GENERAL DYNAMICS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, INC. | 4% | 4 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (4 awards, $406.7M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 62% for this award:
- no adjustment signals available (using base rate)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 120 recent awards across 80 firms in NAICS [object Object].
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.