Recompete Prediction · high confidence
COMPUTER SYSTEMS DESIGN SERVICES
Department of Homeland Security · U.S. Customs and Border Protection · expires 2026-09-23 (94 days) · value $16.5M
View on USAspending.gov → · PIID 70B04C26F00000246
Predicted winner: LEIDOS, INC.
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEIDOS, INC. incumbent | 65% | 9 recent awards | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 65%) |
| BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON INC | 6% | 15 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (15 awards, $10628.1M in trailing window) |
| ACCENTURE FEDERAL SERVICES LLC | 5% | 12 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (12 awards, $6221.5M in trailing window) |
| SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION | 4% | 10 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (10 awards, $5543.8M in trailing window) |
| ORACLE HEALTH GOVERNMENT SERVICES, INC. | 3% | 8 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (8 awards, $5348.6M in trailing window) |
| CACI, INC. - FEDERAL | 3% | 8 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (8 awards, $5225.0M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 65% for this award:
- original was full & open competition (-5pp: contested lane)
- only 1 offer on original (+8pp: thin field)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 120 recent awards across 34 firms in NAICS 541512.
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.