Recompete Prediction · high confidence
OTHER COMPUTER RELATED SERVICES
Department of Veterans Affairs · Department of Veterans Affairs · expires 2026-09-23 (93 days) · value $10.0M
Predicted winner: EPOCH CONCEPTS LLC
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPOCH CONCEPTS LLC incumbent | 62% | — | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 62%) |
| LEIDOS, INC. | 7% | 11 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (11 awards, $2985.9M in trailing window) |
| GENERAL DYNAMICS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, INC. | 5% | 7 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (7 awards, $1241.1M in trailing window) |
| MINBURN TECHNOLOGY GROUP, LLC | 4% | 5 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (5 awards, $1034.4M in trailing window) |
| FOUR POINTS TECHNOLOGY, L.L.C. | 4% | 5 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (5 awards, $1002.5M in trailing window) |
| V3GATE, LLC | 3% | 4 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (4 awards, $931.5M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 62% for this award:
- no adjustment signals available (using base rate)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 150 recent awards across 90 firms in NAICS [object Object].
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.