Recompete Prediction · high confidence
ALL OTHER PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, AND TECHNICAL SERVICES
Department of Veterans Affairs · Department of Veterans Affairs · expires 2026-09-28 (98 days) · value $19.2M
Predicted winner: THE MITRE CORPORATION
| Candidate | Win probability | Lane sample | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| THE MITRE CORPORATION incumbent | 62% | 11 recent awards | incumbent advantage (base 62% adjusted to 62%) |
| SIERRA NEVADA COMPANY, LLC | 7% | 13 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (13 awards, $2270.2M in trailing window) |
| INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES | 7% | 13 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (13 awards, $1722.9M in trailing window) |
| DOMESTIC AWARDEES (UNDISCLOSED) | 4% | 7 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (7 awards, $1048.7M in trailing window) |
| BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON INC | 4% | 6 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (6 awards, $1025.5M in trailing window) |
| THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY APPLIED PHYSICS LABORATORY LLC | 3% | 5 recent awards | recent award velocity in lane (5 awards, $985.8M in trailing window) |
How we got the incumbent number
Base incumbent-retention rate 62% (band 55%–78%), adjusted to 62% for this award:
- no adjustment signals available (using base rate)
Base rate source. Incumbent retention on federal recompetes clusters ~55-80% across GAO bid-protest data, Bloomberg Government recompete studies, and Centre Law analyses. We anchor at 62% and adjust for observable competition/set-aside signals on each specific award.
Lane sample: 150 recent awards across 71 firms in NAICS [object Object].
Probabilistic estimate from PUBLIC USAspending.gov patterns — not insider information, not a guarantee. Pre-award factors (pricing, key personnel, past-performance scores, solicitation strategy) are not public and are NOT modeled. Treat as a capture-prioritization signal.